Nintendo Cautiously Forecasts Switch 2 Sales Amid Tariff Uncertainty

Nintendo has released what analysts describe as a "conservative" sales forecast for the upcoming Nintendo Switch 2, amidst ongoing uncertainties related to tariffs. This morning, Nintendo announced its financial projections, expecting to sell 15 million units of the Switch 2 and 45 million game copies by the end of its fiscal year on March 31, 2026. The eagerly awaited Switch 2 is set to hit the market on June 5.

In its statement, Nintendo mentioned that its forecast is based on the assumption that the current U.S. tariff rates, which were implemented on April 10, will remain unchanged throughout the fiscal year. However, the company acknowledged that any adjustments to these tariffs could impact their projections. "We will continue to monitor the situation to respond to changes in market conditions," Nintendo stated.

Daniel Ahmad, Director of Research & Insights at Niko Partners, labeled the 15 million unit forecast as "conservative." In a tweet, he suggested that Nintendo's cautious approach might be due to uncertainties around tariffs, pricing, and production, despite strong pre-order momentum. Ahmad added that Nintendo could potentially revise its forecast upwards if the tariff situation improves. "However, the main issue right now is the knock-on effects that are already in motion, creating a challenging environment for a console launch. Not to mention the threat of increased tariffs," he noted.

It's important to highlight that achieving 15 million sales in the first year would position the Switch 2 as one of the most successful console launches in history, surpassing the original Switch's impressive first-year sales of 14.87 million units.

Demand for the Switch 2 appears to be exceptionally high. Following a delay due to tariffs, pre-orders for the Nintendo Switch 2 commenced on April 24, with the console priced at $449.99. The response was as enthusiastic as anticipated. Additionally, Nintendo has advised U.S. customers who pre-ordered through the My Nintendo Store that delivery on the release date is not guaranteed due to overwhelming demand.

For more detailed information, check out IGN's comprehensive Nintendo Switch 2 pre-order guide.